Updated Percentage Analysis of Backwards Compatibility on the Xbox One

About 3 1/2 months ago, I wrote a column that expressed my guesses at over a hundred Xbox 360 titles of personal favorites and how much of a chance they had at making the cut for backwards compatibility to the Xbox One.  At that time, I was flinging numbers in the air.  However, over time and seeing certain developments in the voting itself as well as various articles, my thoughts changed.  But with BC coming out officially on November 12th (and a list on the 9th), I had to lock down those thoughts this past week.  That worked out to a little less than forty titles over that time period that my thoughts changed on.  This article should help to explain what happened to change those thoughts.  Enjoy.

Let’s start out on a positive note, these are titles that were basically confirmed one way or another.  Either they showed up in the preview program, confirmed by the publisher, made by Microsoft or were in the infamous graphic that everybody has seen and dissected to this point.

Worms 2: Armageddon (1% – 99%) – Showed up in the Preview Program.

Driver: San Francisco (1% – 99%), Shadowrun (25% – 99%)  – Showed up in the infamous graphic and I forgot that the Shadowrun license on the consoles is owned by Microsoft.  Just a word to Microsoft, you really need to get on the ball with Shadowrun and work with Harebrained Schemes to port over their amazing Shadowrun PC games.  It’s a gd golden opportunity.

Rainbow Six Vegas (75%-99%), Rainbow Six Vegas II (75%-99%) – Ubisoft has confirmed that when Siege hits, players will be able to play Vegas and Vegas II for free if they buy a copy.  That’s a smart strategy (and we are seeing it with Fallout 4 and Just Cause 3 as well).  So to me, that’s confirmation on those who own the titles that they will be able to play their copies as well regardless if they buy into Siege.

Blue Dragon (75% – 99%) – It’s made by Microsoft and by this point pretty much confirmed.  Now, whether they release it on November 12th, or hold it back for a few months is another discussion…but it’s coming.

Those six are just lay ups though.  The next two titles I think will make it due to very promising vote totals.

Bayonetta (75%-99%), Alice: Madness Returns (50%-75%) – Bayonetta has enough votes where I think it gets the nod.  It’s closing in on 10,000 votes and most people seem to think that’s the automatic shoe in number unless your name is NCAA Football 14.  Alice is closing in on 5,000 votes and was on sale last week digitally.  It’s far from a lock but this quirky game I think gets thrown in.  Now whether that’s with the original Alice or not, I’m not sure…but we can hope.

The next six titles are ones that got revised to 50%.  I think there is significant doubt with each of them, but they stand a good chance to get backwards compatibility at some point.

NCAA Football 14 (25%-50%) – Yes, a Snoop Dogg fueled voting campaign helped to raise my initial thoughts on this title.  It even got me to snag a digital copy a few weeks ago.  As expressed on Bayonetta, 10,000 should be a magical number.  But I am concerned license issues might eat this one.  Those same issues are keeping us from any future NCAA games, and even though you can buy a digital copy of this game, I’m just not convinced.

Overlord (25%-50%), Overlord 2 (25%-50%) – Overlord: Fellowship of Evil is out there now on Xbox One, and supposedly it’s pretty darn good.  I think in an effort to drum up some business for the title, we will see these two games make the jump.  But with low vote totals, there is an air of uncertainty.  I hope it does though.

Divinity II: The Dragon Knight Saga (1% – 50%) – Much like the Overlords, these two are benefitting from the new title (Original Sin) out in the marketplace.  Heck, the new Divinity title is in GOTY discussions, it is so well liked.  What better way to grab some sales than make an older (and still good) title compatible?  Not many ways I’m thinking.

Worms (1% – 50%), Worms: Ultimate Mayhem (1%-50%) – As a result of Worms 2 making the preview program, I think these now have a legitimate shot of making it as well despite being less popular.  The more important question personally for me is what happens with the Worms Collection disc.  My fingers are crossed that the whole disc will work eventually with BC so I can insert it once and enjoy all three games on my Xbox One.

These last seven titles (before we tackle the under-achievers) are titles that ticked up slightly.  It could be because of some minor news or good voting results, or simply because I felt a change of heart.

Double Dragon Neon (1%-25%) – Double Dragon has had some weeks where it did quite well and others that were not so great.  It is now over 1,000 votes and in the conversation for backwards compatibility.  Ultimately it probably loses out, but perhaps Majesco throws a bone here to Double Dragon fans.

Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes (1%-25%), Raven (1-25%) – Might & Magic & Raven were at one time Games with Gold titles and I think any title with that distinction stands at least a minor chance of getting into the hunt.  It’s an easy port, the only problem is that these are not the most popular games and we’ll see how far that GWG umbrella gets thrown around.

Monkey Island I (1%-25%), Monkey Island II (1%-25%) – Telltale is looking for something to translate to BC.  The normal titles such as the Walking Dead series, Wolf Among Us, Game of Thrones already have Xbox One ports.  However, these two titles do not.  They are not going to waste time porting these over and re-selling them.  The easier method (and still get a few sales) is to make them BC and then throw them on sale one week.

Two Worlds (1%-25%), Two Worlds II (1%-25%) – In the last month, both of these titles have been gathering a good number of votes.  The second title has cleared 1,000 votes and the original (pretty much by proxy) is also close to that amount.  I could see each of these two titles slipping in or even II getting in and the first getting left behind.

And then there were the ones who dropped in percentage either due to some bad press, Xbox One ports, or because Activision decided to be mean and not let the rest of us play with our toys.  Of course, there were voting issues as well that led to some of my decisions.

First up, Activision who are more interested apparently in Candy Crush than making backwards compatible titles available on your Xbox One.

Deadpool (25%-1%), Gun (25%-1%), Prototype (25%-1%), Prototype 2 (25%-1%), Wolfenstein (25%-1%), Wolfenstein 3d (25%-1%) – Prototype 1 & 2 already have ports and Deadpool is getting a port come November.  So, they are pretty much out to begin with.  Though I will argue, none of them needed ports, and they were all cash grabs especially Deadpool who has a movie next year.  The two Wolfenstein titles are no longer Activision’s call since Bethesda owns the property so we can ignore them safely.  Which leaves us with Gun which was a hard choice to knock down.  Mostly because of all the titles, this is the one that should be BC because every system needs a good western and the Xbox One is solely lacking at the moment.  But since Activision is acting like a kid in a candy store (okay, that was bad), my hopes are gone.

The next two titles are fairly simple, they both have existing ports on Xbox One, and it’s really a toss up if backwards compatibility will be an option.  I say fifty-fifty on each one because its all about the useful life concept.  I think ultimately one of these titles will make it say the middle of next year when that useful life is used up.

Dishonored (75%-50%), Sleeping Dogs (75%-50%) – I actually own the complete game of the year type edition for Dishonored so if there is a personal favorite of which of these two break the fifty-fifty chance, it’s this one.  Sleeping Dogs I found through Games with Gold and fell instantly in love.  It was probably my favorite game of 2014.  I’ve actually already started looking for cheap copies of Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition ($10-$15 range) because I’m pretty sure that’s the only way I will ever play the DLC.  And if I have to play through the story again to do it, then so be it.

The rest don’t really fit in a category per say, and all have individual reasons why I’m not sure if they are going to make backwards compatibility.

Burnout Revenge (75%-50%) – Everybody knows that Burnout Paradise is coming to backwards compatibility.  That cat was left out of the bag a long time ago, even before I wrote the first column. But what about Revenge?  It was a direct predecessor to Takedown and all of the Burnout games that came before it.  Paradise was a deviation of sorts. I could easily see a scenario where this one is forgotten, they will cite that not enough people were asking for it.  In the same breath, after the tweet that confirmed Paradise, half the replies were asking for Revenge.  I’d say let’s do both, but it might not happen.

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (50%-25%) – I know what you are saying, it nearly has 9000 votes.  That’s Bayonetta territory, it’s a shoe-in, right?  No…not even close.  Voting has slowed quite a bit down and if we ignore that, this is also the most arguably popular Castlevania title ever.  Konami could easily come out with a compilation for the Xbox One and call it a day (even perhaps including the two 360 titles).  And every one of us that like Castlevania would eat that up.  So BC for Symphony, there is still a chance but unless I hear Konami start announcing any title for BC, they will start to fall into the same category as Activision titles, no chance at all.

Condemned (50%-25%), Condemned II (50%-25%) – Another case of where voting has slowed to a crawl.  They are good games, especially the first but these are the kind of titles that get forgotten quickly.  Even with a strong story, I think these might get swept under the rug.

Killer is Dead (25%-1%) – This one has had dismal voting percentages since we started this thing 3 1/2 months ago.  So bad, they are a routine part of the bottom five.  I just don’t see a scenario where its really pursued for backwards compatibility.  It’s also a small time company so there is that caveat as well.  But…as I write this, it’s on sale through Xbox Marketplace for only $5 along with another indie darling title, Catherine.  So, I dunno, but the odds are against it.

Nier (50%-25%) – I would like to say that I believe Nier will slip under the gunfire so to speak and sneak in as a BC title.  But with the sequel to this underrated gem going only to the PS4, I can’t say that a Xbox One push is being heavily talked out.  Votes haven’t been kind either.  Hopefully, I’m wrong but like most JPRGs, it will be ignored by Microsoft fans.

Peggle (50%-25%) – What’s wrong with Peggle you say?  I just honestly think that most people don’t care enough about the title to really pursue it.  That and I really haven’t heard from Popcap or EA games that they really want to push games out there for BC that aren’t AAA titles.  I think the best fit scenario would be placing this in the EA Access Vault right next to Peggle 2.  You’ll get some new subscriptions and the few fans like me will probably quiet down.

Silent Hill: Homecoming (50%-25%) – This one saddens me.  Silent Hill is pretty much an afterthought in Konami land.  They cancelled the upcoming title, and they would rather make Pachinko machines in its likeness than anything else.  The vote totals are good enough I think, but ultimately Konami has other things on their plate and this one will probably fade into obscurity.

Too Human (25%-1%) – I am an idiot.  I forgot about the legal troubles this game had and for some reason voted for it.  In the same breath, I even thought it had a chance of BC because it was published by Microsoft.  No….no…not happening, and those who still have a copy like myself…hold onto it, dearly.

Welp, that’s it….now we will wait until November 9th for Microsoft to list the first 100 titles to be backwards compatible on the 12th.  Good stuff, let’s just hope that a lot of my personal favorites end up in the pot.

 

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